{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091406",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-at-60-62-ladder-at-50-2026-09-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate yea votes on crypto bill priced right at the 60-vote line",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Clarity Act Senate yeas implied at 60-62: ladder at 50%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T62",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.45,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 50% above 60 yea votes and only 25% above 62, putting the market-implied vote count right on the cloture knife-edge.",
    "Final text release with ethics provisions is consistent with last-minute vote-gathering; the market has not broken clearly above the 60-vote threshold.",
    "The 64% probability above 55 votes versus 50% above 60 shows the market expects votes in the high 50s to low 60s as the modal outcome.",
    "Polymarket law-by-2026 contract (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744) at 29% reflects that clearing cloture still leaves House passage and presidential signature as hurdles."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cryptotimes.io",
          "source_url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/14/senate-unveils-final-clarity-act-text-with-trump-backed-ethics-deal-ahead-of-tuesday-cloture-vote/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senators Lummis, Boozman, and Scott released the final Clarity Act text late Sunday ahead of Tuesday's cloture vote, incorporating a Trump-backed ethics deal.",
      "publisher": "cryptotimes.io",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/14/senate-unveils-final-clarity-act-text-with-trump-backed-ethics-deal-ahead-of-tuesday-cloture-vote/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolves via official Senate roll-call vote records; threshold of 60 is the cloture requirement under Senate procedure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cryptotimes.io: Senate Unveils Final CLARITY Act Text With Trump-Backed Ethics Deal Ah",
      "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/14/senate-unveils-final-clarity-act-text-with-trump-backed-ethics-deal-ahead-of-tuesday-cloture-vote/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-at-60-62-ladder-at-50-2026-09-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-at-60-62-ladder-at-50-2026-09-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}