{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081106",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-below-50-prediction-market-2026-08-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z",
  "semantic_title": "Clarity Act Senate yea vote count stays below 50 seats",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Clarity Act Senate yeas implied below 50: prediction market",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9.24,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies fewer than 50 Senate yea votes on the CLARITY Act, with the 50-vote rung at only 42% and all higher rungs well below that.",
    "Thune setting a September 15 procedural vote is a meaningful step forward, but the market prices the bill falling short of a filibuster-proof majority.",
    "The 42% at 50 votes and 34% at 55 votes suggests real doubt about reaching 60 votes needed to advance, consistent with ongoing bipartisan friction.",
    "Resolves based on the official Senate vote tally; the procedural cloture vote on September 15 may itself serve as an early resolution trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "TradingKey",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senate Majority Leader John Thune scheduled a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act for September 15, marking the bill's first formal Senate action.",
      "publisher": "TradingKey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This ladder carries priced data; the distribution is centered below the 50-vote threshold, suggesting passage is not the market's base case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "TradingKey: Clarity Act Sees Major Breakthrough as Senate Sets First Procedural Vo",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:06:42.685Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-below-50-prediction-market-2026-08-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-yeas-implied-below-50-prediction-market-2026-08-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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