{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081107",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-by-2026-polymarket-17-2026-08-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T09:06:42.685Z",
  "semantic_title": "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 17%",
  "headline": "Clarity Act signed by 2026: Polymarket 17%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 340005.178578,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 17% chance the CLARITY Act is signed into law by the end of 2026, keeping it a clear long shot.",
    "SEC proposing Regulation Crypto adds regulatory momentum, but the Polymarket contract shows markets do not treat this as a near-term legislative lock.",
    "The Senate yea-vote ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implying sub-50 votes reinforces the 17% full-enactment price; passage and signature are two separate hurdles.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract requires presidential signature by December 31, 2026, not just Senate passage."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Yevheny Serhiienko",
          "source_url": "https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/sec-moves-toward-landmark-regulation-crypto-framework-for-digital-asset-offerings/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The SEC moved toward proposing its Regulation Crypto framework, adding regulatory momentum to the broader digital asset legislative push including the CLARITY Act.",
      "publisher": "Yevheny Serhiienko",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T09:06:42.685Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/sec-moves-toward-landmark-regulation-crypto-framework-for-digital-asset-offerings/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket is the venue; the 17% price sits well below a coin flip, consistent with the Senate vote count distribution showing likely failure to reach 60."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Yevheny Serhiienko: SEC Moves Toward Landmark ‘Regulation Crypto’ Framework for Digital As",
      "url": "https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/sec-moves-toward-landmark-regulation-crypto-framework-for-digital-asset-offerings/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T09:06:42.685Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-by-2026-polymarket-17-2026-08-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-by-2026-polymarket-17-2026-08-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}