{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061008",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-48-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Clarity Act signing by year-end anchors at a coin flip",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 48%",
  "headline": "Clarity Act signed by end of 2026: Polymarket 48%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5098.988515999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "congress.gov",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026 at 48%, essentially a coin flip despite heavy industry lobbying.",
    "The coalition push signals urgency from the industry, but the market's near-even split reflects real legislative uncertainty in the Senate.",
    "Senator Cynthia Lummis's parallel warning that failure means waiting until 2030 adds context to why the industry is pressing hard now.",
    "Resolves via congress.gov; the bill must be signed into law, not merely pass one chamber, by December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Joseph Morton",
          "source_url": "https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "More than 200 digital asset firms urged Senate leaders to bring the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to a floor vote.",
      "publisher": "Joseph Morton",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 48% is consistent with genuine legislative uncertainty; industry pressure alone has not moved the contract to a clear majority."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Joseph Morton: Crypto industry coalition pushes Senate to advance Clarity Act - Muggl",
      "url": "https://mugglehead.com/crypto-industry-coalition-pushes-senate-to-advance-clarity-act/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T19:23:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-48-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-48-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}