{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073007",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-28-2026-07-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Clarity Act signed into law this year stays below 30 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 28%",
  "headline": "Clarity Act signed in 2026: Polymarket 28%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.28,
    "volume_24h_usd": 389971.458786,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a 28% chance the Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026.",
    "The SEC and CFTC pursuing their own parallel regulatory framework via Project Crypto is consistent with below-30% odds on the standalone legislative path.",
    "A competing agency-driven approach could reduce Congress's urgency to pass the Clarity Act, putting further downward pressure on the Polymarket contract.",
    "Resolution is via UMA oracle; the contract requires a presidential signature on the Clarity Act before year-end 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Yoonseo Lee",
          "source_url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/87112/us-sec-cftc-launch-project-crypto-could-it-be-an-alternative-to-the-clarity-act",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The SEC and CFTC launched Project Crypto as a possible regulatory alternative to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.",
      "publisher": "Yoonseo Lee",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/87112/us-sec-cftc-launch-project-crypto-could-it-be-an-alternative-to-the-clarity-act"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the 28% price reflects genuine legislative uncertainty now compounded by an agency-level alternative emerging."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Yoonseo Lee: U.S. SEC, CFTC start 'Project Crypto' as possible alternative to Clari",
      "url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/87112/us-sec-cftc-launch-project-crypto-could-it-be-an-alternative-to-the-clarity-act",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-28-2026-07-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-28-2026-07-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}