{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080206",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-31-2026-08-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 31%",
  "headline": "CLARITY Act signed in 2026: Polymarket 31%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 109623.90994699995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract puts 31% odds on the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026.",
    "The coordinated White House and SEC push on the Senate is a meaningful escalation, but the market at 31% reflects skepticism that legislative timing will align before year-end.",
    "The STS Digital CEO's warning of delayed US crypto regulation as a headwind is broadly consistent with the market staying well below 50%.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms sits at 46%, meaning post-midterm legislative dynamics add further uncertainty to the 2026 window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/clarity-act-faces-white-house-blitz-as-treasury-and-sec-flood-senate-with-coordinated-pressure-this-week-200070",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration and crypto industry launched a multi-agency pressure campaign on the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act this week.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/clarity-act-faces-white-house-blitz-as-treasury-and-sec-flood-senate-with-coordinated-pressure-this-week-200070"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 31% resolves via UMA oracle; the market prices the lobbying blitz as a nudge, not a near-certain catalyst for passage."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: CLARITY Act faces White House blitz as Treasury and SEC flood Senate w",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/clarity-act-faces-white-house-blitz-as-treasury-and-sec-flood-senate-with-coordinated-pressure-this-week-200070",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-31-2026-08-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-31-2026-08-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}