{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072307",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-39-2026-07-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 priced below 40%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 39%",
  "headline": "Clarity Act signed in 2026: Polymarket 39%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 119615.20660500001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 39% chance the Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026, a minority probability reflecting real legislative uncertainty.",
    "Stalled Senate talks are consistent with the sub-40% read; the market is not pricing the bill as likely to pass this year.",
    "Bitcoin's drop to below $64,700 (Story 34/35) correlates with the legislative setback, but the BTC price-level ladder (CM-EVT-R55TT711T7) already implies Bitcoin below $67,500 by July 31 at 61%, suggesting the market had priced in weakness before the stall.",
    "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the bill requires Senate Republican votes plus Democratic crossover support, the resolution trigger is presidential signature."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Terence Zimwara",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-slides-below-64700-as-senate-clarity-act-talks-stall-and-oil-tops-101/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin slid below $64,700 partly as Senate CLARITY Act bipartisan talks stalled, with the new draft barring Trump and officials from issuing crypto.",
      "publisher": "Terence Zimwara",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-slides-below-64700-as-senate-clarity-act-talks-stall-and-oil-tops-101/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 39% on the Clarity Act; the legislative stall news is directionally aligned with, not a surprise versus, the sub-50% market probability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Terence Zimwara: Bitcoin Slides Below $64,700 as Senate CLARITY Act Talks Stall and Oil",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-slides-below-64700-as-senate-clarity-act-talks-stall-and-oil-tops-101/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-39-2026-07-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-39-2026-07-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}