{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091507",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Clarity Act signed into law this year stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "Clarity Act signed in 2026: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.079,
    "volume_24h_usd": 197827.41145599997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at just 8%.",
    "Senate collapse of the crypto bill is consistent with Polymarket's low probability, with the House Bitcoin reserve bill passage offering an alternative but narrower crypto legislative path.",
    "A Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes for a crypto market structure bill implies a market-implied outcome below 50 votes, corroborating the Senate's evident resistance.",
    "Resolution: Polymarket settles via its UMA oracle, requiring verifiable signing by the President."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP  and  Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US Senate crypto regulatory bill collapsed, dealing a major blow to efforts to establish a first-of-its-kind digital asset framework.",
      "publisher": "AFP  and  Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 8% accurately anticipated the Senate headwinds, with the bill's collapse now making 2026 enactment a remote scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP  and  Reuters: US Senate crypto bill collapses in blow to industry | Crypto News | Al",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}