{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091908",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "Clarity Act signed into law 2026: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.085,
    "volume_24h_usd": 234349.622311,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 8% odds on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026.",
    "The Senate failure to advance the bill is consistent with this near-floor pricing; the market had already discounted legislative success before the setback.",
    "The CFTC submitting its own crypto framework to the White House suggests regulatory action is proceeding on an executive track, reducing urgency for legislative action this year.",
    "The Kalshi Senate vote ladder implies fewer than 50 yea votes on a crypto market structure bill, confirming the market does not see the votes available to pass the Clarity Act."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Crypto in America",
          "source_url": "https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, prompting the SEC and CFTC to move forward with independent crypto regulatory rulemaking as a substitute.",
      "publisher": "Crypto in America",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the regulatory substitute path via CFTC rulemaking does not appear to affect contract resolution, which requires the specific act to become law."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Crypto in America: After Crypto’s Bruising Week on Capitol Hill, Regulators Pick Up the M",
      "url": "https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/after-cryptos-bruising-week-on-capitol",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-into-law-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-into-law-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}