{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071907",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-polymarket-36-2026-07-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 holds minority pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 36%",
  "headline": "CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026: Polymarket 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390",
    "question_raw": "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17890.228553999998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 36% on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026.",
    "Warren's conflict-of-interest scrutiny of Trump's reported $1.4 billion crypto income introduces a bipartisan complication the market appears to be discounting moderately.",
    "At 36%, the market sees passage as a minority outcome; Senate opposition driven by disclosure concerns could widen that gap.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 on broader crypto market structure legislation prices 40%, a tight spread suggesting cross-venue consensus on slim-but-real odds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Helms",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Senator Elizabeth Warren is pressing President Trump for crypto earnings disclosures as the Senate weighs the CLARITY Act, which could increase Trump's crypto income.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Helms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; Warren's disclosure campaign adds a legislative friction the 36% probability reflects."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Helms: Trump’s $1.4B Crypto Income Draws Scrutiny as Senate Weighs CLARITY Ac",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/trumps-1-4b-crypto-income-draws-scrutiny-as-senate-weighs-clarity-act/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-polymarket-36-2026-07-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-polymarket-36-2026-07-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}