{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061008",
  "record_slug": "collins-gop-maine-senate-nominee-kalshi-99-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T02:11:22.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Collins as Maine GOP Senate nominee fully absorbed into pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "Collins GOP Maine Senate nominee: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FJC909J0Z4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsenatemer-26",
  "event_question": "Will Susan Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSENATEMER-26-SCOL",
    "question_raw": "Will Susan Collins be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Maine?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Republican Party",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Susan Collins as the Republican Senate nominee for Maine at 99%, reflecting the primary result as a near-done resolution.",
    "Platner's primary win confirms the Collins matchup; the 99% is fully consistent with Collins having secured her own nomination on the same night.",
    "The broader Senate control question is priced separately: Kalshi puts Republicans winning the Senate at 79% (CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46 Kansas race), with Maine as one of the competitive seats that shapes that outcome.",
    "Resolves via Republican Party official nominee designation; no credible challenger remaining after primary night makes this effectively settled."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/graham-platner-win-maine-democratic-014446949.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrat Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary, setting up a high-stakes November Senate race against Republican incumbent Susan Collins.",
      "publisher": "yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T02:11:22.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/graham-platner-win-maine-democratic-014446949.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 99% on Collins as GOP nominee is lagging the primary result, functioning as a settlement-pending price rather than a forward signal; the live question now is the general-election outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "yahoo.com: Graham Platner to win Maine Democratic Senate primary and face Sen. Su",
      "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/graham-platner-win-maine-democratic-014446949.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T02:11:22.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/collins-gop-maine-senate-nominee-kalshi-99-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/collins-gop-maine-senate-nominee-kalshi-99-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}