{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060404",
  "record_slug": "congress-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30-polymarket-4-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T03:50:26.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Congress passing Iran war powers resolution by June 30 remains priced out",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Congress Iran war powers resolution by June 30: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KF5S4BY541",
  "target_event_slug": "congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Congress pass an Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xcb3c2e94aefd13bb09a72fdf74d44fa7b2ebe437b863e0621831c020bfd4ed4d",
    "question_raw": "Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.039,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1234.659639,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Congress passes an Iran war powers resolution by June 30.",
    "The House vote is a genuine rebuke of the president, but the market implies the Senate is seen as a near-certain kill switch for the resolution.",
    "The House passage is a procedural milestone, yet Polymarket is effectively pricing a Senate block as near-certain within the month.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the resolution must clear both chambers and survive any veto or procedural block before June 30."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thedailybeast.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hit-with-huge-blow-as-republicans-vote-against-his-war-in-iran/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The House passed a war powers resolution to halt U.S. military action against Iran, with four Republicans joining Democrats in a 215-208 vote.",
      "publisher": "thedailybeast.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T03:50:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hit-with-huge-blow-as-republicans-vote-against-his-war-in-iran/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 4% sharply discounts the House vote's downstream impact, implying the Senate is viewed as a near-certain obstacle within the June 30 window."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thedailybeast.com: Donald Trump Hit With Huge Blow as Republicans Vote Against His War in",
      "url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hit-with-huge-blow-as-republicans-vote-against-his-war-in-iran/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T03:50:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/congress-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30-polymarket-4-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/congress-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-june-30-polymarket-4-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}