{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101701",
  "record_slug": "core-cpi-above-2-8-2-9-for-2026-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Core CPI for 2026 stays above 2 percent near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Core CPI above 2.8-2.9% for 2026: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26nov",
  "event_question": "2026 annual core CPI rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.9",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins 2026 annual core CPI in the 2.8-2.9% range: 57% above 2.8%, 37% above 2.9%, sharp drop to 23% above 3.0%.",
    "News flags slow progress toward the Fed's 2% target; Kalshi distribution is consistent, placing the modal outcome well above target.",
    "The 99% probability above 2.0% means markets treat a return to target in 2026 as essentially impossible.",
    "Separately, the Kalshi binary on core CPI falling below 2.2% in 2026 sits at just 8%, reinforcing the ladder's above-target read."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Damian J. Troise",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US earnings season and upcoming economic reports are spotlighting inflation's persistent toll on consumers and corporate margins.",
      "publisher": "Damian J. Troise",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers the full annual core CPI distribution; the 8% binary on sub-2.2% outcome is a clean cross-check on the same question."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Damian J. Troise: US earnings and economic reports this week to spotlight inflation’s to",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-above-2-8-2-9-for-2026-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-above-2-8-2-9-for-2026-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}