{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101601",
  "record_slug": "core-cpi-above-2-kalshi-ladder-implies-2-8-2-9-2026-10-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Core CPI above 2 percent stays near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Core CPI above 2%: Kalshi ladder implies 2.8-2.9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26nov",
  "event_question": "Core CPI year-over-year rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.9",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.3,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the core CPI year-over-year rate in the 2.8-2.9% range: 55% above 2.8%, only 30% above 2.9%.",
    "TD Economics reported core CPI at 2.6%; the Kalshi distribution is consistent with expectations of continued drift higher toward 2.8-2.9%.",
    "The 78% probability above 2.6% aligns with the current print, suggesting markets anticipated this level and are pricing modest further acceleration.",
    "The Kalshi contract at only 8% for core CPI falling below 2.2% in 2026 confirms the ladder read: a return to near-target inflation is heavily discounted."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economics.td.com",
          "source_url": "https://economics.td.com/us-weekly-bottom-line",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T12:25:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "TD Economics reported headline CPI accelerated to 3.7% and core CPI to 2.6% in the latest reading, with NFIB, Beige Book, and PPI data all pointing to building price pressures.",
      "publisher": "economics.td.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economics.td.com/us-weekly-bottom-line"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on core CPI year-over-year spans 2.0% to 3.5% strikes; implied central tendency sits firmly in the 2.8-2.9% band."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economics.td.com: TD Economics - Weekly Bottom Line",
      "url": "https://economics.td.com/us-weekly-bottom-line",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T12:25:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-above-2-kalshi-ladder-implies-2-8-2-9-2026-10-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-above-2-kalshi-ladder-implies-2-8-2-9-2026-10-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}