{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103003",
  "record_slug": "core-cpi-annual-rate-seen-at-2-8-2-9-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T09:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Core CPI for 2026 seen settling near 2.8 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Core CPI annual rate seen at 2.8-2.9%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26nov",
  "event_question": "Core CPI year-over-year rate for year ending 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.9",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.24,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies a core CPI year-over-year rate near 2.8-2.9%, with 60% pricing above 2.8% but only 24% above 2.9%.",
    "News coverage flags inflation running above 2% as a political headwind for midterms; the ladder's distribution is consistent with that narrative.",
    "The sharp drop from 60% above 2.8% to 24% above 2.9% shows the market sees limited upside risk beyond the current run rate.",
    "Resolution is via the named BLS core CPI print; the ladder collapses quickly above 3.0% (only 16%), suggesting the market does not price a re-acceleration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Max Zahn",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/us-economy-midterm-elections/story?id=137478975",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T07:48:23+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Pre-midterm economic coverage highlights persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target alongside continued GDP growth.",
      "publisher": "Max Zahn",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T09:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/us-economy-midterm-elections/story?id=137478975"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's core CPI ladder reflects a market consensus clustered around 2.8-2.9% for the full year, with tails sharply discounted on either side."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Max Zahn: What to know about the US economy as midterm elections near",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/us-economy-midterm-elections/story?id=137478975",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T09:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T07:48:23+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-annual-rate-seen-at-2-8-2-9-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-annual-rate-seen-at-2-8-2-9-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}