{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071302",
  "record_slug": "core-cpi-seen-2-7-2-8-for-year-ending-june-kalshi-2026-07-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:15:46.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Core CPI pricing anchors near 2.7-2.8 percent ahead of hot print",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Core CPI seen 2.7-2.8% for year ending June: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-B5KCGZG8C0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "Core CPI year-over-year rate, year ending June 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26JUN-T2.8",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.33,
    "volume_24h_usd": 599.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-21T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices core CPI for the year ending June 2026 in the 2.7-2.8% range: 85% above 2.7% but only 33% above 2.8%, a tight distribution around a modest level.",
    "The 4.2% headline CPI print through May reflects tariff and energy pass-through; the market's core reading of roughly 2.75% suggests tariff effects are seen as transitory in core.",
    "The gap between a 4.2% headline and a sub-3% core implied by this ladder is the crux of the Fed policy debate, and the market is not pricing a core breakout.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; any core print at or above 2.9% would sharply compress the current 3% tail, now priced at just 3%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Warren Cohen",
          "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/the-may-inflation-reading-hit-4-2-the-hottest-in-three-years-and-a-july-14-report-could-sway-the-fed/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Headline CPI hit 4.2% year-over-year through May 2026, the hottest in three years, with the June CPI report releasing today seen as a potential catalyst for a Fed rate hike.",
      "publisher": "Warren Cohen",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:15:46.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/the-may-inflation-reading-hit-4-2-the-hottest-in-three-years-and-a-july-14-report-could-sway-the-fed/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's core CPI ladder is concentrated well below the 4.2% headline, reflecting a market read that strips out tariff-driven components."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Warren Cohen: The May inflation reading hit 4.2%, the hottest in three years, and a",
      "url": "https://thefinancialwire.com/the-may-inflation-reading-hit-4-2-the-hottest-in-three-years-and-a-july-14-report-could-sway-the-fed/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T02:15:46.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-seen-2-7-2-8-for-year-ending-june-kalshi-2026-07-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-seen-2-7-2-8-for-year-ending-june-kalshi-2026-07-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}