{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110601",
  "record_slug": "core-cpi-year-end-above-2-7-kalshi-67-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:48:24.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Core CPI above 2.7 percent stays near 50-50 odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Core CPI year-end above 2.7%: Kalshi 67%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpicoreyoy-26nov",
  "event_question": "Core CPI year-over-year rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPICOREYOY-26NOV-T2.8",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 160.75,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-17T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins core CPI in the 2.7-2.8% range: 67% above 2.7%, only 25% above 2.8%.",
    "Volume surged 162x day-over-day on this contract, signaling the blowout jobs print is drawing fresh attention to the inflation outlook.",
    "The 2.8% strike at 25% suggests markets are not fully pricing a renewed inflation surge despite the strong labor data.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder on November 2026 monthly CPI change implies a range near 0.0-0.1%, consistent with a gradual, not runaway, path."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rich Asplund",
          "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/dollar-gains-us-economic-strength-204824839.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "October payrolls surged to 165,000, well above the 65,000 consensus, lifting the dollar and reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations.",
      "publisher": "Rich Asplund",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:48:24.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/dollar-gains-us-economic-strength-204824839.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on core CPI year-over-year rate saw 162x volume spike, the strongest signal in today's data set that the jobs print is repricing the inflation distribution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rich Asplund: Dollar Gains on US Economic Strength and Hawkish Fed",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/dollar-gains-us-economic-strength-204824839.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T20:48:24.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-year-end-above-2-7-kalshi-67-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/core-cpi-year-end-above-2-7-kalshi-67-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}