{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110407",
  "record_slug": "crypto-bill-senate-yea-votes-implied-below-50-ladder-2026-11-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T20:19:26.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Crypto market structure bill falls short of 50 Senate votes, odds stay low",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Crypto bill Senate yea votes implied below 50: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies Senate yea votes on a crypto market structure bill fall below 50: only 6% above 50 votes, 7% above 55, 7% above 60.",
    "The near-flat probability across the 50-68 vote range reflects deep uncertainty about whether any bill passes, not a scenario where it clears comfortably.",
    "Democrats winning both chambers, as reported, is consistent with the ladder's pricing of sub-50 votes, since the incoming Democratic majority is seen as less favorable to the crypto industry's legislative agenda.",
    "The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 4%, corroborating the ladder's dim view of near-term crypto legislation."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "TheStreet",
          "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/policy/midterm-results-leave-the-clarity-act-racing-the-clock",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:48:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats winning both chambers gives the lame-duck Congress only weeks to pass crypto market structure legislation before a less favorable Congress takes over.",
      "publisher": "TheStreet",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T20:19:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/policy/midterm-results-leave-the-clarity-act-racing-the-clock"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Prediction market ladder puts sub-50 Senate yea votes as the strong central case, consistent with the Democratic sweep cutting short the crypto industry's legislative window."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "TheStreet: Democratic sweep leaves crypto bill weeks to live",
      "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/policy/midterm-results-leave-the-clarity-act-racing-the-clock",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T20:19:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:48:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/crypto-bill-senate-yea-votes-implied-below-50-ladder-2026-11-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/crypto-bill-senate-yea-votes-implied-below-50-ladder-2026-11-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}