{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071808",
  "record_slug": "crypto-market-structure-law-by-2027-kalshi-38-2026-07-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Crypto market structure law by 2027 anchors at modest 38 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 38%",
  "headline": "Crypto market structure law by 2027: Kalshi 38%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcryptostructure-26jan",
  "event_question": "Will crypto market structure legislation become law by 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.38,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2386.16,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices crypto market structure legislation becoming law by 2027 at 38%, below even odds despite regulatory momentum.",
    "SEC rulemaking entering White House review is a procedural step consistent with progress, but the market stops well short of pricing passage as likely.",
    "Senate Banking Committee is separately expected to take up the crypto market structure bill within weeks, yet the Kalshi contract is unmoved from sub-50%.",
    "Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature on qualifying crypto market structure legislation by the 2027 deadline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "htx.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.htx.com/news/sec-crypto-rulemaking-enters-white-house-review-as-industry-KSu12wus/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The SEC's proposed crypto regulatory framework entered White House review, signaling a potential shift from enforcement-based oversight to formal rulemaking.",
      "publisher": "htx.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.htx.com/news/sec-crypto-rulemaking-enters-white-house-review-as-industry-KSu12wus/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 38% shows the market treating legislative passage as uncertain despite concurrent SEC and Senate activity, reflecting historical difficulty of financial legislation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "htx.com: SEC Crypto Rulemaking Enters White House Review As Industry Waits For",
      "url": "https://www.htx.com/news/sec-crypto-rulemaking-enters-white-house-review-as-industry-KSu12wus/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/crypto-market-structure-law-by-2027-kalshi-38-2026-07-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/crypto-market-structure-law-by-2027-kalshi-38-2026-07-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}