{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071208",
  "record_slug": "crypto-market-structure-law-by-2027-kalshi-45-2026-07-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-12T02:59:52.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Crypto market structure law by 2027 holds near even pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 45%",
  "headline": "Crypto market structure law by 2027: Kalshi 45%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcryptostructure-26jan",
  "event_question": "Will crypto market structure legislation become law by 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5900.62,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 45% on crypto market structure legislation becoming law by 2027, resolves via White House.",
    "Lummis's urgency framing is not matched by a majority-odds market; the 45% price reflects genuine legislative doubt despite momentum.",
    "The CFTC approving the first US Bitcoin perpetual contract (Story 30) adds regulatory context suggesting incremental crypto legitimization without full legislative resolution.",
    "Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature on qualifying crypto market structure legislation before the 2027 deadline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jason Scott",
          "source_url": "https://cryptonewsdigest.org/clarity-act-may-be-congress-last-chance-for-digital-asset-law-before-2030-senator-warns/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that the CLARITY Act may be Congress's last chance to pass digital asset legislation before 2030, urging lawmakers to act now.",
      "publisher": "Jason Scott",
      "published_at": "2026-07-12T02:59:52.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptonewsdigest.org/clarity-act-may-be-congress-last-chance-for-digital-asset-law-before-2030-senator-warns/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 45% sits just below even odds, consistent with a market that sees real but uncertain legislative progress."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jason Scott: CLARITY Act May Be Congress’ Last Chance for Digital Asset Law Before",
      "url": "https://cryptonewsdigest.org/clarity-act-may-be-congress-last-chance-for-digital-asset-law-before-2030-senator-warns/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-12T02:59:52.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/crypto-market-structure-law-by-2027-kalshi-45-2026-07-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/crypto-market-structure-law-by-2027-kalshi-45-2026-07-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}