{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629DV03",
  "record_slug": "databricks-ipo-k6-p16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Databricks IPO spread bridges a wide gap across major desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 16% vs Kalshi 6%",
  "headline": "Databricks IPO before 2027: Kalshi 6% vs Polymarket 16%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Databricks IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xfa0166f81f49ec29802bec6eabd71bd73aa24e65f0681b0071f5d1055ef44776",
    "question_raw": "Databricks IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.16,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 479676.466797,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-DATABRICKS",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.06
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Databricks IPO at 16%, Kalshi at 6%, a 10pp divergence on the same horizon.",
    "Polymarket carries roughly 38x Kalshi's cumulative volume, anchoring the higher price with substantially more participation.",
    "Kalshi's low print on comparatively thin volume may understate true market probability given Databricks' active pre-IPO signaling.",
    "Resolution requires a confirmed public listing before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-EBC7EEEA61); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 795.086187,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 66.87
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Databricks IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/databricks-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:30:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/databricks-ipo-k6-p16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/databricks-ipo-k6-p16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}