{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102804",
  "record_slug": "democrat-house-win-2026-kalshi-91-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats near full pricing to retake the House",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 91%",
  "headline": "Democrat House win 2026: Kalshi 91%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.91,
    "volume_24h_usd": 643717.82,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democrats winning the US House at 91%, treating a Democratic takeover as near-certain.",
    "This sits well above the 68% Democratic Senate odds on Polymarket, signaling the market sees the House as a much safer Democratic pickup than the Senate.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress; settlement requires formal certification of House composition after all races are called.",
    "The 65% Republican odds on holding at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) are arithmetically consistent: a split Congress outcome is the modal market scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elissa Fitzgerald",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-obama/107318004",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Midterm campaign coverage shows Obama and Trump holding dueling rallies in competitive states five days before Election Day.",
      "publisher": "Elissa Fitzgerald",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-obama/107318004"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Library of Congress; the spread between 91% House and 68% Senate Democratic odds points to a split-chamber consensus."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elissa Fitzgerald: US midterms briefing: Trump expands hunt for voter fraud ahead of midt",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-obama/107318004",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrat-house-win-2026-kalshi-91-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrat-house-win-2026-kalshi-91-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}