{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102803",
  "record_slug": "democrat-senate-control-2026-polymarket-68-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats hold slim edge in Senate control odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 68%",
  "headline": "Democrat Senate control 2026: Polymarket 68%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.68,
    "volume_24h_usd": 180990.59895899997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Democrats winning Senate control at 68%, a clear lean but not a near-certain outcome.",
    "Competing Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-YKHDL92349) puts Republicans winning the Senate at only 33%, consistent with the 68% Democratic read across venues.",
    "Kalshi separately prices Republican control of at least one chamber of Congress at 65% (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451), implying the House remains the more likely GOP hold.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle on Polymarket; the Kalshi Senate contract resolves via Library of Congress certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elissa Fitzgerald",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-obama/107318004",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "With five days until the US midterm elections, Trump is campaigning to defend red-state Senate seats while Obama rallies for Democratic candidates in competitive states.",
      "publisher": "Elissa Fitzgerald",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-obama/107318004"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket and Kalshi contracts are cross-venue consistent; no contradictory signals between venues on Senate direction."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elissa Fitzgerald: US midterms briefing: Trump expands hunt for voter fraud ahead of midt",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-29/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-obama/107318004",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrat-senate-control-2026-polymarket-68-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrat-senate-control-2026-polymarket-68-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}