{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092404",
  "record_slug": "democrats-sweep-core-four-senate-races-by-2026-kalshi-62-2026-09-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats sweeping four core Senate races climbs near 62%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 62%",
  "headline": "Democrats sweep core four Senate races by 2026: Kalshi 62%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?",
    "current_price": 0.62,
    "volume_24h_usd": 33085.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 62% chance Democrats sweep the four core Senate races by 2026, with trading volume up 9,219% day over day, a 93x surge indicating heavy fresh positioning.",
    "Senate Republicans blocking the Iran war powers resolution, combined with rising gas prices, appears to be driving fresh Democratic-sweep bets on Kalshi.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 61% for Republicans holding at least one chamber shows the two markets nearly mirroring each other, a statistical tension worth monitoring as they cannot both resolve favorably.",
    "Resolves via Bloomberg as the named resolution source; the sweep definition requires Democrats to win all four named contests."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lisa Mascaro         Sept. 24, 2026  2:50 PM PT",
          "source_url": "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-09-24/senate-rejects-resolution-to-halt-iran-war-as-gas-prices-upend-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Senate narrowly rejected a House-passed war powers resolution to halt the Iran war, as gas prices driven by the conflict upend midterm dynamics.",
      "publisher": "Lisa Mascaro         Sept. 24, 2026  2:50 PM PT",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-09-24/senate-rejects-resolution-to-halt-iran-war-as-gas-prices-upend-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 62% with 93.2x day-over-day volume surge; resolves via Bloomberg confirmation of all four Democratic Senate wins."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lisa Mascaro         Sept. 24, 2026  2:50 PM PT: Senate rejects resolution to halt the Iran war as gas prices upend mid",
      "url": "https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-09-24/senate-rejects-resolution-to-halt-iran-war-as-gas-prices-upend-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-sweep-core-four-senate-races-by-2026-kalshi-62-2026-09-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-sweep-core-four-senate-races-by-2026-kalshi-62-2026-09-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}