{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061407",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-house-in-2026-kalshi-79-2026-06-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats retaking the House in 2026 solidifies near strong consensus",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 79%",
  "headline": "Democrats win House in 2026: Kalshi 79%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party or the Republican Party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.79,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9624.1,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 79% probability Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms.",
    "The NBC poll's five-point Democratic generic ballot lead is broadly consistent with the 79% pricing: markets and surveys align on a Democratic House lean.",
    "The Polymarket House contract (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) prices 83% for Democrats, a small cross-venue gap suggesting Polymarket is modestly more bullish on a Democratic flip.",
    "Senate control (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices only 44% for Republicans, implying a potential split-chamber outcome is the market-implied base case heading into November."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-democrats-maintain-edge-fight-congress-trump-gets-poor-marks-rcna348913",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An NBC News poll shows Democrats holding a five-point generic ballot lead as Trump's approval rating weighs on Republican midterm prospects.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-democrats-maintain-edge-fight-congress-trump-gets-poor-marks-rcna348913"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi and Polymarket House contracts converge near 80% for Democrats, with the Senate pricing a much tighter race reflecting differing map dynamics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Poll: Democrats maintain an edge in the fight for Congress as Trump ge",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-democrats-maintain-edge-fight-congress-trump-gets-poor-marks-rcna348913",
      "published_at": "2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-house-in-2026-kalshi-79-2026-06-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-house-in-2026-kalshi-79-2026-06-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}