{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092303",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-or-3-house-seat-kalshi-93-2026-09-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats heavily favored in Oregon 3rd District House race",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 93%",
  "headline": "Democrats win OR-3 House seat: Kalshi 93%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermmov-or03d",
  "event_question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P38",
    "question_raw": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?",
    "current_price": 0.93,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democratic victory in Oregon's 3rd District House race at 93%, a heavy favorite reading.",
    "The PBS poll showing Democrats with a large national lead among independents is consistent with the lopsided Kalshi contract on this safely Democratic seat.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 71%, pointing to a split picture: Democrats strong in blue districts, Republicans still favored on governors.",
    "Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying the Oregon 3rd District result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "PBS",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A new PBS poll shows Democratic congressional candidates holding a significant lead over Republicans nationally, with independents breaking sharply against President Trump heading into the midterms.",
      "publisher": "PBS",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 93% on OR-3 reflects a safe Democratic district; the more contested midterm picture is captured in the 62% Republicans-hold-one-chamber contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451)."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "PBS: Democrats hold midterm lead with independents breaking sharply against",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-or-3-house-seat-kalshi-93-2026-09-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-or-3-house-seat-kalshi-93-2026-09-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}