{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103005",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-senate-2026-polymarket-73-2026-10-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats favored to win Senate control after midterms",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 73%",
  "headline": "Democrats win Senate 2026: Polymarket 73%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.73,
    "volume_24h_usd": 246061.71147699998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts Democratic control of the Senate at 73%, a strong but not overwhelming lean heading into election week.",
    "Politico's GOP wipeout framing is broadly consistent with prediction market pricing, the Senate is the closer of the two chambers in the market's view.",
    "Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 70% on a separate Kalshi contract, implying the House may be the more contested battleground.",
    "Resolution follows the Library of Congress certification of official congressional composition after the November election count is complete."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Calen Razor",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/inside-congress",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Politico's Inside Congress newsletter reports a potential GOP wipeout in the midterms could loosen President Donald Trump's grip on Congress.",
      "publisher": "Calen Razor",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/inside-congress"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; cross-referencing with Kalshi's Republican chamber control contract at 70% reveals Senate and House are priced differently."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Calen Razor: Inside Congress Newsletter - POLITICO",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/inside-congress",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-senate-2026-polymarket-73-2026-10-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-senate-2026-polymarket-73-2026-10-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}