{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061108",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-senate-in-2026-polymarket-44-2026-06-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T14:35:39.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate Democratic control in 2026 wavers just below coin-flip",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 44%",
  "headline": "Democrats win Senate in 2026: Polymarket 44%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican Party or Democratic Party win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.44,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6746.159307,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Democratic control of the Senate after 2026 midterms at 44%, just below even despite favorable forecaster moves.",
    "The three-race shift toward Democrats described by the forecaster is not yet fully reflected; the market still prices Republicans as slight favorites.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract prices Democratic control of the House at 79%, suggesting markets see an asymmetric Democratic advantage in the lower chamber.",
    "Resolution is via uma_oracle using certified election results; forecaster upgrades do not directly move the resolution trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/news/senate-map-tightens-top-forecaster-143539392.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A leading nonpartisan forecaster shifted three Senate races toward Democrats, calling the Democratic path to a majority clear.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T14:35:39.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/news/senate-map-tightens-top-forecaster-143539392.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle on final certified Senate race outcomes; the 44% price suggests markets discount the forecaster's optimism for Democrats."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Senate map tightens as top forecaster moves 3 races toward Democrats -",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/news/senate-map-tightens-top-forecaster-143539392.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T14:35:39.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-senate-in-2026-polymarket-44-2026-06-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-senate-in-2026-polymarket-44-2026-06-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}