{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110205",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-senate-polymarket-73-2026-11-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-02T10:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats favored but not certain to take Senate control",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 73%",
  "headline": "Democrats win Senate: Polymarket 73%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.73,
    "volume_24h_usd": 955697.827816,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Democrats winning Senate control at 73%, leaving meaningful 27% odds on Republicans retaining it.",
    "The Senate race is closer than the House call, and sector analysts in the story flag Senate composition as decisive for regulatory agendas.",
    "Kalshi's companion contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 74% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber captures the residual Republican Senate scenario.",
    "The four-seat Democratic gain threshold referenced in Story 24 maps to a contested landscape that the 73% Polymarket price reflects."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Luke Fountain",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/midterm-election-stocks-defense-healthcare-crypto-ai.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T17:44:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Sector analysts flag the Senate as the key variable for midterm-driven policy shifts in defense, healthcare, crypto, and AI.",
      "publisher": "Luke Fountain",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T10:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/midterm-election-stocks-defense-healthcare-crypto-ai.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle based on certified Senate election results following the 2026 midterms."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Luke Fountain: Defense, healthcare, crypto and AI: How the midterm election could aff",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/midterm-election-stocks-defense-healthcare-crypto-ai.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T10:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T17:44:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-senate-polymarket-73-2026-11-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-senate-polymarket-73-2026-11-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}