{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081405",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-08-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats taking back the House stays heavily favored at 86%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 86%",
  "headline": "Democrats win US House 2026: Kalshi 86%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.86,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3679.22,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices an 86% probability that the Democratic Party wins the US House in the next election, resolves via Library of Congress.",
    "Election-security concerns and state-level Democratic mobilization are consistent with a market strongly favoring a Democratic House flip.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms sits at 47%, suggesting Senate control is far less certain.",
    "Polymarket contract on a blue wave in 2026 is at 76%, broadly consistent with the Kalshi House reading and pointing to a Democratic sweep scenario as the market consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Hardy",
          "source_url": "https://stateline.org/2026/08/14/no-more-hypothetical-situations-state-officials-work-to-protect-elections-from-the-feds/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "State Democratic officials are preparing election-integrity defenses ahead of November as Trump pushes for more federal involvement in local voting.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Hardy",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://stateline.org/2026/08/14/no-more-hypothetical-situations-state-officials-work-to-protect-elections-from-the-feds/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Library of Congress; the 86% price reflects a strong structural lean toward Democrats in the current generic-ballot environment."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Hardy: No more 'hypothetical situations': States move to fortify elections ag",
      "url": "https://stateline.org/2026/08/14/no-more-hypothetical-situations-state-officials-work-to-protect-elections-from-the-feds/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-08-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-08-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}