{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103005",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-94-2026-10-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats winning U.S. House stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 94%",
  "headline": "Democrats win US House 2026: Kalshi 94%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.939,
    "volume_24h_usd": 626061.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on Democrats winning the U.S. House is priced at 94%, placing heavy odds on a Democratic flip.",
    "News of Trump's tele-rally push to limit GOP losses and a Democratic Michigan intraparty feud has not shifted this contract off its heavily favored position.",
    "At 94%, the market is pricing near-certainty of a Democratic House, the 6% residual captures upset risk, counting errors, or unresolved close races.",
    "Resolves via the Library of Congress; the Kansas Senate Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46) sits at 49%, suggesting Senate control remains genuinely contested."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/30/take-five-midterms-meet-earnings/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With the midterm campaign entering its final weekend, market attention centers on whether Democrats can flip the House amid Republican efforts to stem losses.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/30/take-five-midterms-meet-earnings/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Library of Congress; pairing with the 70% Republicans-hold-one-chamber contract implies the market's base case is a split Congress."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: Take Five: Midterms meet earnings",
      "url": "https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/30/take-five-midterms-meet-earnings/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-94-2026-10-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-94-2026-10-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}