{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073004",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-us-house-in-2026-kalshi-83-2026-07-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T10:00:26.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats firmly favored to win the US House in midterms",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 83%",
  "headline": "Democrats win US House in 2026: Kalshi 83%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.83,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5436.52,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices an 83% chance Democrats win the US House in the next election.",
    "An 8-point Democratic generic ballot lead from CNN is broadly consistent with the high Kalshi probability on a House flip.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 50%, suggesting a more mixed down-ballot picture.",
    "The Library of Congress is the named resolution source; the contract settles on official certified election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "edition.cnn.com",
          "source_url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A CNN poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot less than 100 days before the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "edition.cnn.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T10:00:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress official election records; the 83% price and the poll result are directionally aligned."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "edition.cnn.com: CNN Poll: Voters favor Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the",
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T10:00:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-in-2026-kalshi-83-2026-07-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-in-2026-kalshi-83-2026-07-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}