{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100604",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-us-house-in-next-election-kalshi-89-2026-10-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats heavily favored to retake the House in November",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 89%",
  "headline": "Democrats win US House in next election: Kalshi 89%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.89,
    "volume_24h_usd": 378844.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democrats winning the US House at 89%, a heavily favored outcome one month before the November 3 midterms.",
    "Republican mail-in voting confusion and candidate distancing from Trump reported by Reuters aligns with, not against, this Democratic-favored pricing.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) sits at 62%, suggesting the Senate remains the likely Republican backstop.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Senate control (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices 63% for one party, the cross-venue consistency reinforces a split-Congress base case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Katherine Faulders, Nicholas Kerr",
          "source_url": "https://www-cdn.abcnews.com/Politics/trump-sows-doubt-mail-voting-encouraging-midterms-approach/story?id=137025278",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump is sowing doubt about mail-in voting while encouraging it, as Republican candidates distance themselves ahead of November midterms.",
      "publisher": "Katherine Faulders, Nicholas Kerr",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www-cdn.abcnews.com/Politics/trump-sows-doubt-mail-voting-encouraging-midterms-approach/story?id=137025278"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Library of Congress; the 89% price reflects a strong Democratic House lean one month out."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Katherine Faulders, Nicholas Kerr: Trump sows doubt about mail-in voting while encouraging it, as midterm",
      "url": "https://www-cdn.abcnews.com/Politics/trump-sows-doubt-mail-voting-encouraging-midterms-approach/story?id=137025278",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-in-next-election-kalshi-89-2026-10-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-in-next-election-kalshi-89-2026-10-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}