{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072607",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-us-house-next-election-kalshi-84-2026-07-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats winning the US House stays heavily favored at 84 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 84%",
  "headline": "Democrats win US House next election: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.84,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8376.12,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices an 84% chance Democrats win the US House in the next election, resolving via Library of Congress.",
    "Democratic polling leads and a focused affordability message from Jeffries are consistent with the strong odds, but the market prices in that structural advantages matter.",
    "Companion Kalshi event CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451 puts only 43% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after midterms, showing Democrats are favored in the House but the Senate remains contested.",
    "Redistricting gains for Republicans cited in news are already in the market; the 84% hold suggests traders view them as insufficient to overcome the Democratic polling advantage."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/house-midterms-election-affordability-trump-d1d9d0cd0c3ed3b53a7f812a6bd2e7a6",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries launched a 100-day sprint to midterms with an affordability agenda from battleground Pennsylvania, as Democrats lead in polls but face redistricting headwinds.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/house-midterms-election-affordability-trump-d1d9d0cd0c3ed3b53a7f812a6bd2e7a6"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 84% resolves via Library of Congress and represents the composite House control question, distinct from individual district markets also in this story group."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Jeffries kicks off sprint to midterms with Democrats' affordability ag",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/house-midterms-election-affordability-trump-d1d9d0cd0c3ed3b53a7f812a6bd2e7a6",
      "published_at": "2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-next-election-kalshi-84-2026-07-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-next-election-kalshi-84-2026-07-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}