{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082504",
  "record_slug": "dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-by-2026-kalshi-55-2026-08-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats sweeping four core Senate races sits near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 55%",
  "headline": "Dems sweep core four Senate races by 2026: Kalshi 55%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?",
    "current_price": 0.55,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2979.32,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 55% chance Democrats sweep the four core Senate races, resolves via Bloomberg.",
    "Canada trade war escalation in border-state Senate battlegrounds is consistent with the market tilting just above 50% toward a Democratic sweep.",
    "The broader House majority market (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) at 84% on Kalshi shows higher Democratic confidence in the House than in the Senate sweep.",
    "Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of the four designated Senate race outcomes after the November 2026 elections."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://www.wndu.com/2026/08/25/trumps-trade-war-with-canada-could-rattle-economies-states-with-key-senate-races/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-27T18:46:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's escalating trade war with Canada is threatening Republican Senate candidates in border states, with control of the U.S. Senate potentially hinging on affected races.",
      "publisher": "The Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wndu.com/2026/08/25/trumps-trade-war-with-canada-could-rattle-economies-states-with-key-senate-races/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 55% for a Senate sweep reflects genuine uncertainty; the gap to 84% House odds implies the Senate path is meaningfully harder for Democrats."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Associated Press: Trump’s trade war with Canada could rattle economies in states with ke",
      "url": "https://www.wndu.com/2026/08/25/trumps-trade-war-with-canada-could-rattle-economies-states-with-key-senate-races/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-27T18:46:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-by-2026-kalshi-55-2026-08-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-by-2026-kalshi-55-2026-08-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}