{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100704",
  "record_slug": "dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-kalshi-53-2026-10-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats sweep four core Senate races holds near 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 53%",
  "headline": "Dems sweep core four Senate races: Kalshi 53%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH62PP4D92",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats sweep the core four Senate races by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?",
    "current_price": 0.53,
    "volume_24h_usd": 154.79,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 53% on Democrats sweeping all four core Senate races, nearly a coin-flip heading into the debate cycle.",
    "The Maine race between Collins and Jackson is a linchpin; a Collins loss is required for a Democratic sweep.",
    "Polymarket (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) puts 49% on Democrats winning all four core races, nearly matching Kalshi and confirming the near-even split across venues.",
    "Resolves via Bloomberg's official call of all four race outcomes after Election Day."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/susan-collins-troy-jackson-clash-trump-seniority-maines-first-senate-d-rcna601346",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson clashed in Maine's first Senate debate over Trump alignment and seniority in a key battleground race.",
      "publisher": "nbcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/susan-collins-troy-jackson-clash-trump-seniority-maines-first-senate-d-rcna601346"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 53% and Polymarket at 49% are tightly aligned, with no material cross-venue gap."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnews.com: Susan Collins and Troy Jackson clash over Trump and seniority in Maine",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/susan-collins-troy-jackson-clash-trump-seniority-maines-first-senate-d-rcna601346",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T07:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-kalshi-53-2026-10-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-core-four-senate-races-kalshi-53-2026-10-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}