{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100302",
  "record_slug": "dems-sweep-four-core-senate-races-polymarket-55-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats sweep four core Senate races stays near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 55%",
  "headline": "Dems sweep four core Senate races: Polymarket 55%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7",
  "target_event_slug": "will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats win all four core Senate races?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x096f26b2abcfde3ee7863e7916ca17682522715f7631debd4878a43ee6c797a9",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win all \"core four\" senate races?",
    "current_price": 0.55,
    "volume_24h_usd": 145.39999999999998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 55% on Democrats winning all four core Senate races, a slim majority-leaning read with no decisive lean.",
    "Poll data showing Democratic momentum in Republican-leaning districts is broadly consistent with the near-50% pricing, not a clear market mismatch.",
    "Kalshi's companion contract on the same sweep question sits at 53%, showing tight cross-venue alignment and little arbitrage gap.",
    "Resolution requires Democrats to win all four races; a single loss collapses the contract to zero, which explains the discount from a straight single-race favorite read."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Muskan Singh",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-midterm-elections-2026-are-democrats-finally-making-a-comeback-in-republican-strongholds-heres-what-a-new-midterm-poll-shows/articleshow/134664760.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A new midterm poll suggests Democrats may be making inroads in traditional Republican strongholds ahead of the November 3 elections.",
      "publisher": "Muskan Singh",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-midterm-elections-2026-are-democrats-finally-making-a-comeback-in-republican-strongholds-heres-what-a-new-midterm-poll-shows/articleshow/134664760.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 55% and Kalshi at 53% are in close agreement, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus directional call on the Senate sweep."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Muskan Singh: Midterm polls: U.S. midterm elections 2026: Are Democrats finally maki",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-midterm-elections-2026-are-democrats-finally-making-a-comeback-in-republican-strongholds-heres-what-a-new-midterm-poll-shows/articleshow/134664760.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-four-core-senate-races-polymarket-55-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-sweep-four-core-senate-races-polymarket-55-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}