{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102504",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-2026-senate-control-polymarket-66-2026-10-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats favored to win Senate control in 2026 race",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 66%",
  "headline": "Dems win 2026 Senate control: Polymarket 66%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.66,
    "volume_24h_usd": 64680.928675,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 66% probability that Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election.",
    "Obama's active campaign trail presence is consistent with Democrats being modest favorites, though the Polymarket contract predates this specific appearance.",
    "The Kalshi contract simultaneously puts only 65% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber, making a split Congress outcome plausible under both markets.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle based on certified Senate composition post-election; contested seats or recounts could delay resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Max Matza",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmj6jwe1j1gjo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T12:56:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Former President Barack Obama campaigned for Democrats ahead of the midterms, attacking the Trump administration on the Iran war and high consumer prices.",
      "publisher": "Max Matza",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmj6jwe1j1gjo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 66% for a Democratic Senate majority, running against the Kalshi 65% Republican chamber contract, implies the market sees a House-only GOP scenario as the likeliest Republican path."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Max Matza: Obama attacks Trump as he campaigns for Democrats ahead of midterm ele",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmj6jwe1j1gjo",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T12:56:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-2026-senate-control-polymarket-66-2026-10-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-2026-senate-control-polymarket-66-2026-10-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}