{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101405",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-all-four-core-senate-races-polymarket-50-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats sweeping all four core Senate races sits near 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 50%",
  "headline": "Dems win all four core Senate races: Polymarket 50%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7",
  "target_event_slug": "will-democrats-win-all-core-four-senate-races",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats win all four core Senate races?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x096f26b2abcfde3ee7863e7916ca17682522715f7631debd4878a43ee6c797a9",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win all \"core four\" senate races?",
    "current_price": 0.5,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Democrats winning all four core Senate races prices at exactly 50%, reflecting maximum uncertainty.",
    "GOP distancing from Trump on the economy and Iran (Story 15) is consistent with a competitive Senate map, matching the even-odds pricing.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber at 60% (Story 11) implies markets expect partial GOP retention even if Democrats sweep key Senate contests.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the 50% price signals no directional consensus ahead of election night."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jihan Abdalla",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/10/14/trump-midterms-republicans-toxic/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Donald Trump is personalizing the midterm elections as a referendum on his agenda while some Republicans distance themselves on the economy and immigration.",
      "publisher": "Jihan Abdalla",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/10/14/trump-midterms-republicans-toxic/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; 50% pricing means the contract offers no directional edge and reflects genuine market uncertainty about Senate control."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jihan Abdalla: Toxic Trump? President makes midterms all about him but some Republica",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/10/14/trump-midterms-republicans-toxic/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-all-four-core-senate-races-polymarket-50-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-all-four-core-senate-races-polymarket-50-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}