{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102805",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-any-texas-statewide-in-2026-kalshi-74-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T03:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats winning any Texas statewide race stays near 75 percent odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 74%",
  "headline": "Dems win any Texas statewide in 2026: Kalshi 74%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NQQNC9S0P9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxanydemwintexas-26nov03",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXANYDEMWINTEXAS-26NOV03",
    "question_raw": "Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?",
    "current_price": 0.74,
    "volume_24h_usd": 160.87,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Source Agencies are",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 74% on Democrats winning at least one statewide election in Texas in 2026.",
    "Dueling rally coverage underscores a genuinely competitive Texas Senate race, and the 74% probability reflects markets treating a Democratic win as more likely than not.",
    "At 74%, the market goes further than typical political commentary, which frames this as a long-shot opportunity rather than a probable outcome.",
    "Resolves via named Source Agencies; the Texas Senate race is the primary catalyst, but any statewide win qualifies."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Natasha Korecki, Peter Nicholas",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/james-talarico-faces-trump-dueling-texas-rallies-elections-final-days-rcna605629",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T07:49:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrat James Talarico and President Donald Trump held dueling Texas Senate rallies, with Democrats calling the race their best Texas chance in a generation.",
      "publisher": "Natasha Korecki, Peter Nicholas",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T03:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/james-talarico-faces-trump-dueling-texas-rallies-elections-final-days-rcna605629"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 74% is a notably high probability for Democratic Texas success; the contract's broad definition (any statewide win) may be driving the elevated pricing relative to individual race odds."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Natasha Korecki, Peter Nicholas: James Talarico faces off against Trump in dueling Texas rallies in ele",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/james-talarico-faces-trump-dueling-texas-rallies-elections-final-days-rcna605629",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T03:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T07:49:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-any-texas-statewide-in-2026-kalshi-74-2026-10-28.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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