{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092405",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-any-texas-statewide-race-in-2026-kalshi-60-2026-09-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-24T07:46:13.032Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats winning any Texas statewide race in 2026 holds near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 60%",
  "headline": "Dems win any Texas statewide race in 2026: Kalshi 60%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NQQNC9S0P9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxanydemwintexas-26nov03",
  "event_question": "Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXANYDEMWINTEXAS-26NOV03",
    "question_raw": "Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?",
    "current_price": 0.6,
    "volume_24h_usd": 140.2,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Source Agencies are",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 60% probability that Democrats win at least one statewide election in Texas in 2026.",
    "The data center opposition narrative gives Democrats a tangible local issue; the market has already priced Democrats as slight favorites to break through statewide.",
    "A 60% reading is not a slam dunk, the market is pricing genuine uncertainty, consistent with Texas remaining structurally Republican at the statewide level.",
    "Resolves via designated source agencies; traders should note that 'any statewide election' is a broad bar, which may explain the above-50% pricing even without a clear leading Democratic candidate."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Justin Papp",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/texas-data-centers-election.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Data center backlash is roiling Texas ahead of the 2026 midterms, giving Democrats who adopted a pro-regulation stance hope of winning statewide office for the first time in decades.",
      "publisher": "Justin Papp",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T07:46:13.032Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/texas-data-centers-election.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 60%; resolution source listed as 'The Source Agencies.'"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Justin Papp: Texas turning blue may hinge on Democrats harnessing data center oppos",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/texas-data-centers-election.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T07:46:13.032Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-any-texas-statewide-race-in-2026-kalshi-60-2026-09-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-any-texas-statewide-race-in-2026-kalshi-60-2026-09-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}