{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083004",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-house-2026-kalshi-84-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats taking back the House stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 84%",
  "headline": "Dems win House 2026: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.84,
    "volume_24h_usd": 23139.49,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 84% probability on Democrats winning the U.S. House in the next election, a strongly favored outcome.",
    "The White House staff exodus, including Leavitt's departure, is consistent with the market's heavily Democratic lean but does not by itself move the needle on pricing.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts only 47% on Republicans holding at least one chamber, implying the Senate is the GOP's main remaining path to relevance.",
    "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records; the contract settles on official chamber control, so partial gains without a majority flip would resolve NO."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nationalpost.com",
          "source_url": "https://nationalpost.com/news/trump-white-house-staff-resigning-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Key White House advisers including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt are departing ahead of the 2026 midterms, signaling internal strain as Republicans face electoral headwinds.",
      "publisher": "nationalpost.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://nationalpost.com/news/trump-white-house-staff-resigning-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi Library of Congress resolution source provides a definitive settlement standard; the 84% print is one of the most decisive midterm reads across all tracked contracts."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nationalpost.com: Some of Trump's top advisers leaving the White House ahead of midterms",
      "url": "https://nationalpost.com/news/trump-white-house-staff-resigning-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-house-2026-kalshi-84-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-house-2026-kalshi-84-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}