{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060808",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-house-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-78-2026-06-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-08T11:29:39.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats favored to retake the House at 78 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 78%",
  "headline": "Dems win House in 2026 midterms: Kalshi 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party or the Republican Party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.78,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13639.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 78% chance Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms.",
    "Republican urgency on a pre-recess legislative package reflects awareness of the hostile electoral environment the market is pricing.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at only 23%, a structurally consistent read.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress official certification of House composition following the November 2026 election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sudiksha Kochi",
          "source_url": "https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/republican-third-reconciliation-bill-midterm-elections/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-09T10:57:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Republicans are racing to pass a third party-line legislative package before August recess, seeking to cement Trump's agenda ahead of midterms amid growing intra-party friction.",
      "publisher": "Sudiksha Kochi",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T11:29:39.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/republican-third-reconciliation-bill-midterm-elections/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 78% Democratic House probability is consistent with the 23% Republican chamber-control figure, forming a coherent midterm pricing structure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sudiksha Kochi: House Republicans push for third party-line package ahead of midterms",
      "url": "https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/republican-third-reconciliation-bill-midterm-elections/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T11:29:39.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-09T10:57:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-house-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-78-2026-06-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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}