{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101605",
  "record_slug": "dems-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-90-2026-10-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats heavily favored to win the House in 2026",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 90%",
  "headline": "Dems win US House 2026: Kalshi 90%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.903,
    "volume_24h_usd": 256713.26,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 90% odds on the Democratic Party winning the US House in the 2026 midterm elections.",
    "The debate activity described by Fox News, with GOP defending majorities, is at odds with this pricing: the market is strongly fading Republican retention of the House.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 62% for Republicans controlling at least one chamber implies the market sees Senate retention as plausible even as the House flips.",
    "Resolution is via the Library of Congress; the contract settles on official chamber control determination after certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Alex Nitzberg, Paul Steinhauser, Charles Creitz, Robert Schmad, Ashley J. DiMella",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/midterm-elections-2026-less-than-three-weeks-away-october-16",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fox News reports midterm debates are intensifying with House and Senate majorities hanging in the balance less than three weeks before Election Day.",
      "publisher": "Alex Nitzberg, Paul Steinhauser, Charles Creitz, Robert Schmad, Ashley J. DiMella",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/midterm-elections-2026-less-than-three-weeks-away-october-16"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via the Library of Congress; the 90% House Democratic probability combined with 62% GOP one-chamber odds implies the Senate is the primary GOP hold scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Alex Nitzberg, Paul Steinhauser, Charles Creitz, Robert Schmad, Ashley J. DiMella: As midterm Election Day approaches, candidates clash in debates  | Liv",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/midterm-elections-2026-less-than-three-weeks-away-october-16",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-90-2026-10-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/dems-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-90-2026-10-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}