{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260922DV01",
  "record_slug": "discord-ipo-k22-p11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T07:49:09+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the smaller venue",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 22%",
  "headline": "Discord IPO before 2027: Kalshi 22% vs Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48fcbf6bb8eceff817ba48b56211e4f8a4cf6896570d847d8d115e63c3abf36a",
    "question_raw": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 481821.5298490004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-DISCORD",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.22
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi sits at 22%, Polymarket at 11%, an 11pp spread on the same binary claim.",
    "Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds roughly 17x more cumulative volume, anchoring its print.",
    "Polymarket's deeper liquidity and longer track record on IPO contracts give its lower price stronger credibility here.",
    "Resolves YES only on a completed Discord IPO before Jan 1, 2027, a tight remaining window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-26DA00133D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 452.09,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 72.33
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Discord IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/discord-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:49:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k22-p11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k22-p11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}