{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260827DV01",
  "record_slug": "discord-ipo-k32-p26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:47:54+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Discord IPO timeline diverges on the major prediction desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 32%",
  "headline": "Discord IPO before 2027: Kalshi 32% vs Polymarket 27%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48fcbf6bb8eceff817ba48b56211e4f8a4cf6896570d847d8d115e63c3abf36a",
    "question_raw": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.267,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 472506.33620599995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-DISCORD",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.32
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Discord IPO odds 5pp above Polymarket, 32% vs 27%, with roughly five months left in the window.",
    "Polymarket is the lower-priced venue and holds the dominant share of volume, nearly twelve times Kalshi's cumulative figure.",
    "High Polymarket volume behind the lower price makes that venue's read harder to dismiss as thin-market noise.",
    "Resolution requires a confirmed public listing or first trade before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-26DA00133D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 101.62,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 14.32
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Discord IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/discord-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-27T18:47:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k32-p26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k32-p26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}