{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260719DV01",
  "record_slug": "discord-ipo-k46-p35",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-19T09:49:54+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Discord IPO timeline decouples on the major prediction desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 35% vs Kalshi 46%",
  "headline": "Discord IPO before 2027: Kalshi 46% vs Polymarket 35%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48fcbf6bb8eceff817ba48b56211e4f8a4cf6896570d847d8d115e63c3abf36a",
    "question_raw": "Discord IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.351,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 464387.08380799927,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-DISCORD",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.46
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices at 46%, Polymarket at 35%, an 11pp divergence on the same horizon.",
    "Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket holds roughly nine times the cumulative volume.",
    "Kalshi's retail-skewed audience may be over-pricing IPO optimism relative to Polymarket's larger, more active crowd.",
    "Resolves YES only on a completed public offering before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-26DA00133D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 202.07631,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 591.78
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Discord IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/discord-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:49:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k46-p35/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/discord-ipo-k46-p35.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}