{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102402",
  "record_slug": "ecb-cut-in-2026-polymarket-5-2026-10-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "ECB rate cut in 2026 stays a long shot on Polymarket",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "ECB cut in 2026: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-26",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JDWKB50KQ6",
  "target_event_slug": "ecb-rate-cut-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the European Central Bank cut interest rates in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x7afb0968d23370cf4daf85e6a483c45197181ffbc26122465af70ee15e56d286",
    "question_raw": "ECB rate cut in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 5% on the ECB cutting interest rates at any point in 2026.",
    "News flow uniformly expects the ECB to hold this week, and the Polymarket contract is firmly aligned with that consensus at a 95% implied probability of no cut all year.",
    "The near-zero probability leaves almost no room for a dovish surprise from the ECB through year-end 2026.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; any ECB rate cut announcement in 2026 would trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Dow Jones Newswires staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-decisions-from-fed-other-central-banks-in-focus-92a52730",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T07:47:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve and ECB are both expected to hold rates this week, with the ECB widely anticipated to remain on hold alongside the Fed.",
      "publisher": "Dow Jones Newswires staff",
      "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-decisions-from-fed-other-central-banks-in-focus-92a52730"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 5%; trading volume not reported, so no volume signal available."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Dow Jones Newswires staff: Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Decisions From Fed, Other Central Banks in F",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-decisions-from-fed-other-central-banks-in-focus-92a52730",
      "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T07:47:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ecb-cut-in-2026-polymarket-5-2026-10-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ecb-cut-in-2026-polymarket-5-2026-10-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}