{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082908",
  "record_slug": "eth-above-2-750-by-aug-31-polymarket-2-2026-08-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-29T00:09:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "ETH above $2,750 by August 31 stays near zero odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "ETH above $2,750 by Aug 31: Polymarket 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-01"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XM950S28R8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxethmaxmon-eth-26aug31",
  "event_question": "market-implied level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26AUG31-275000",
    "question_raw": "Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 176.24,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket ladder puts only 2% odds on ETH trimmed mean exceeding $2,750 by 11:59 PM ET on August 31.",
    "With ETH trading near $2,434 and crypto broadly under pressure from the rate-hike repricing, the near-zero probability above $2,750 is consistent with current spot levels.",
    "The broader crypto liquidation cascade following Warsh's speech makes a $300-plus ETH recovery before August 31 highly unlikely by market consensus.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle using a trimmed mean price methodology through the August 31 deadline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "interactivecrypto.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.interactivecrypto.com/bitcoin-dips-below-77k-amid-fed-s-hawkish-shift-and-488m-crypto-liquidations-aug-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin fell below $77,000 after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech triggered $488 million in crypto liquidations, with ETH also trading near $2,434.",
      "publisher": "interactivecrypto.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-29T00:09:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.interactivecrypto.com/bitcoin-dips-below-77k-amid-fed-s-hawkish-shift-and-488m-crypto-liquidations-aug-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's ETH ladder at 2% above $2,750 by August 31 is the clearest crypto-side pricing signal from the post-Warsh rate-hike repricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "interactivecrypto.com: Bitcoin Dips Below $77K Amid Fed’s Hawkish Shift and $488M Crypto Liqu",
      "url": "https://www.interactivecrypto.com/bitcoin-dips-below-77k-amid-fed-s-hawkish-shift-and-488m-crypto-liquidations-aug-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-08-29T00:09:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-29T13:34:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/eth-above-2-750-by-aug-31-polymarket-2-2026-08-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/eth-above-2-750-by-aug-31-polymarket-2-2026-08-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}