{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061808",
  "record_slug": "eth-below-750-by-jan-1-2027-polymarket-14-2026-06-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T19:54:18.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "ETH end-2026 downside floor pricing nears $1000-$1250 implied range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "ETH below $750 by Jan 1 2027: Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPYKMKR9X3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxethminy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "ETH price floor by Jan 1 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXETHMINY-27JAN01-750",
    "question_raw": "Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket's ETH ladder prices 14% below $750 and 32% below $1,000 by January 1 2027, implying a market floor near $1,000-$1,250.",
    "The $84 million ETH liquidation wave is consistent with bearish positioning, but the 85% above $1,500 bucket shows the market does not price a deep crash as base case.",
    "The ETH above $3,500 contract (CM-EVT-G2G3Y09R59) sits at only 16%, confirming the market sees a wide range with the upside tail pricing near-zero.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle at 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027; the six-month horizon means near-term liquidation events do not directly determine resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Merin Rebecca Thomas  \n\n\nPublished  06/18/26 AT 3:54 PM EDT",
          "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/crypto-market-tumbles-180m-positions-liquidated-within-hour-3804293",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Roughly $180 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in one hour, with Ethereum accounting for over $84 million, amid Fed hawkishness and bearish market sentiment.",
      "publisher": "Merin Rebecca Thomas  \n\n\nPublished  06/18/26 AT 3:54 PM EDT",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T19:54:18.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/crypto-market-tumbles-180m-positions-liquidated-within-hour-3804293"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle at year-end; the ladder distribution implies the market's base case keeps ETH above $1,250 despite the current liquidation event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Merin Rebecca Thomas  \n\n\nPublished  06/18/26 AT 3:54 PM EDT: Crypto Market Tumbles As $180M In Positions Liquidated Within An Hour",
      "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com/crypto-market-tumbles-180m-positions-liquidated-within-hour-3804293",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T19:54:18.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/eth-below-750-by-jan-1-2027-polymarket-14-2026-06-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/eth-below-750-by-jan-1-2027-polymarket-14-2026-06-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}